More Perfect Competition evidence from latest Mary Meeker roundup

The latest Mary Meeker goldmine of stats is out, which you can flick through here on Business Insider.  (HT @graemewood).

One chart in particular grabbed my attention:

 

 

It reminded me of the Perfect Competition stuff I wrote on feeding the puppy about two years back:

“The advances we are making are pushing us further towards ‘perfect competition’, which is increasingly making it hard for companies (especially retail ones) to generate the profits they used to.”

(full post here)

Perfect Competition has several key market characteristics that bring it about:

  • Infinite Buyers/Infinite Sellers – Infinite consumers with
    the willingness and ability to buy the product at a certain price,
    Infinite producers with the willingness and ability to supply the
    product at a certain price.
  • Zero Entry/Exit Barriers – It is relatively easy to enter or exit as a business in a perfectly competitive market.
  • Perfect Information – Prices and quality of products are assumed to be known to all consumers and producers.
  • Transactions are Costless – Buyers and sellers incur no costs in making an exchange.
  • Homogeneous Products – The characteristics of any given market good or service do not vary across suppliers.

In the retail space, the rise of the smartphone is rapidly bringing about a situation where perfect information is available about price & quality of goods in the retail environment…

So although smartphones alone will not bring about classic theoretical perfect competition (where no company is able to make any profit, just enough to keep them going…), it makes it a damn site harder to make decent profits.

So if you’re a retailer facing this problem, what might you do about it?

Play on the other factors, perhaps, and move them to your advantage.  Which strays into behavioural economics, which as always is no bad thing, but it naturally strays into some quite Machiavellian ideas, it seems… (five days being exposed to the cash-rinsing exercise that is Vegas was proof of that).

To wit; three mildly evil ideas for shop owners…


Decrease the feeling of “infinite sellers”

If you’ve got a shelf full of products, people are more likely to think “well, they’re still going to be selling them in half an hour, I can shop around”.  Keep just two of any product on a shelf, and as soon as one goes through a till, have backroom staff replace it when the customer has left.


Create some Exit Barriers

As people enter the store, hand them a voucher for free home delivery/5% off/free fitting (whatever is relevant) that only lasts 30 minutes, and states ‘only one voucher per customer per day’.  Suddenly if they walk across town to another store, the thirty minutes will have lapsed…


Only trade in limited editions

Homogeneity is your enemy; if your competitor offers the same product, here’s nothing to stop people shopping around.  So do whatever you can to make your products unique, individual, and only available on your floor.  Free gifts, special designs, signed editions… what’s the thing you’re offering that’s stopping the customer walking?

 

There’s lots more you can think about, of course, but the list of five perfect competition characteristics is a good place to start looking for inspiration.

If you’re mildly evil, that is.

Immediacy Theory > Recency Theory ?

I’m going away for a long weekend now, but before I do, I thought I’d just capture this… which occured during a lively twittering with Simon, Bryan, Wilding, the Essential guys and (another) Simon

It’s after talking about Recency Theory in the previous location post.

As an idea, it’s only partially baked so far, but this quick doodle gets under the skin of it a little…

 

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Recency Theory stated that it was more important to concentrate on the last message that someone would receive before they made a decision about something, as that would catapault you in to the consideration set, or set off an impulse purchase, or whatever.

You can see why it was so popular in Outdoor circles when it came to retail… posters are often the last ‘message’ you’ll be exposed to before entering a shop.

But now, with the mobile device, you can get a lot closer to the actual point of purchase, and do some really interesting things…

– dynamic discounts to keep footfall up (5% over lunch, 15% mid-afternoon)

– use search and visual recognition to offer the good cheap to people in a rival’s store

– be ever-present when the sudden “I need a brolly” decision comes into people’s head when the rain come’s on

…things that are a lot closer to the ‘point of purchase’, and actually occur just before or just after the point at which someone thinks ‘I need this…’

So yeah, that so far is Immediacy Theory… being present in the immediate instant pre-purchase, post-decision…

(I’m sure it’ll get much better when you all comment below, so please do… I’ll be back Tuesday)

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Location. Location? Location!

 

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(picture of Utility’s sign in Brighton… thanks to clever Matt for the clever title)

…there’s a frood who really knows where his towel is

…from Hitch-hiker’s Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams

 

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I’m becoming increasingly fascinated by location.

The location of not just people, but of things too (yes, like towels)…

…and of course of messages… the way people and things communicate with each other.

We’re living in a world where everything knows where it is (whatever it is, human or object) in relation to lots of other things.

So I thought it was worth expanding on why, including why it’s probably very important for marketing folks to be thinking about. 

How things were

Some background; when I worked in the planning and insight function at Viacom Outdoor, location was very important for us.  We were the guys charged with coming up with (occasionally) clever thoughts on why and how advertisers could use Underground & Bus advertising to target the right sorts of people.

 

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We used to refer a lot to ‘recency theory’, as developed by a chap called Erwin Ephron in the US, which basically stated that the most important message you can deliver is the last before someone chooses to do something. 

You can see why it would appeal as a theory to folk selling outdoor ad space… six years ago most transactions were still happening on the high street, and as a way to influence decisions posters were a pretty good bet.

Of course, it’s classic advertising; push messaging, reach millions, affect thousands, and hang the wastage…

How things are

Nowadays, of course, we’re no longer buying stuff exclusively on the High Street.  In 2009, we spent nearly £50bn online (up 21% year of year).  Total retail sales were £287bn, so just under 20p of every pound we spend is online.  A fifth.

Which is enough, in combination with the recession, to make sad sights like this an everyday occurance… this is what you see if you visit the site of the former legendary shopping mecca that was the flagship Virgin Megastore on Oxford Street…

 

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But still, there’s remains a fair chunk of money in people’s pockets to be had when they’re out and about, so the need for location targeting is still there, to guide people towards your front door…

…except…

…people aren’t alone when they’re out shopping any more. They’ve got their phone with them… and it’s not an ordinary phone anymore…


Smartphone penetration in the UK was at 15% in Q3 2009 (Nielsen)

Which is of course before we had the iPhone appearing on Orange & Vodafone, a fair few other smartphones appearing on the market, and the Christmas boost.

 

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So it’s got to be around 20% now.  Again, a fifth.

And when you look at what they do with these phones, it’s clear that this may well be the ‘year of the mobile’… 10.4m people in Q3 2009 used their phone to access the internet.  Up from 8.8m in Q2. 

That’s 21% of all mobile users… yep, a fifth, again.

(thanks to Fiona and Mat for the help with stats)

Let’s be honest; the awful browsing experience, combined with stupidly high data charges from the mobile operators, meant the ‘mobile web’ was largely unloved and unused for years. 

That’s now significantly changed.

A fifth of people have the technology to access the web on the move, and a fifth of them are.

Yet I don’t think that’s the most important thing about the rise of the smartphone.  The interesting thing for me is that smartphones invariably come loaded with GPS… they know exactly where you are.

How things might be

Now, amongst those who have the potential to use location based services on their phone, take-up isn’t huge yet; 3.3m people used location based services in Q3 2009.

But it’s growing fast; there was a 7% increase between Q2 & Q3

And this is in a country where location based services like Foursquare and Gowalla are still largely waiting for any companies to really engage with the platforms, as I talked about here.

Why would companies engage in services like this? 

Well, because people will want them to, and reward the ones who do it well with their custom.

 

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On a very simple retail level, there’s huge advantages for people in being able to hold a device in your hand that tells you about the shopping environment around you…

– find out about the discounts being offered, and even make yourself ‘known’ as a discount hunter and see if anyone wants to attract you with a short-term immediate discount in return for your custom

 

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– check the stock lists of a store, so if you’re after something in particular, you know which shops have it, and at what price

 

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– make personal shopper appointments – if there’s a personal shopped in a clothes store you really trust, you can find out if they’re working

 

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– the map for the ‘fastest route around’ based on the shops you want to visit, where they are, and how big the queues there are currently (or have been in the past)

 

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– find out where there’s a free table in coffee shops or restaurants, and reserve it for a small fee (payable instantly through the phone)

 

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– set up impromptu ‘meeting points’ that you can send to other friends and family members

 

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– remember where your car is in the huge, sprawling car park

 

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…and of course, the possibilities go on and on. 

I believe that there will be a location based service around the shopping experience that will cater for just about everyone eventually; young, old, techy or not. 

Because at the heart of it, there’s something hugely useful in improving the shopping experience.

Of course, location based services in the shopping environment could simply drive down prices, much as an insurance aggregation site does in that market (I talked about the notion of Perfect Competition earlier this year in this context).

The challenge for us in marketing is to create these things that continue to add value to the retail experience for people; it will be as much a part of the ‘brand experience’ as the store signage or the TV ad.

One day, there will be no excuse for anyone not knowing where their towel is.  Or how much it costs, or which shop it’s in, or how long it will take to get there…..

 

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