When does everybody get a Smartphone? Q3, 2011.
I talked before about UK smartphone penetration, in relation to the forthcoming location bonanza that’s heading our way.
Now, thanks to Mark, here’s some projections from the US on when more people will have a Smartphone than a standard phone.
Q3 next year, apparently…
The UK were slightly behind the US in Q3 2009 (15% vs 18%). But it’s close enough to give us a good steer…]]>
Immediacy Theory > Recency Theory ?
I’m going away for a long weekend now, but before I do, I thought I’d just capture this… which occured during a lively twittering with Simon, Bryan, Wilding, the Essential guys and (another) Simon…
It’s after talking about Recency Theory in the previous location post.
As an idea, it’s only partially baked so far, but this quick doodle gets under the skin of it a little…
Recency Theory stated that it was more important to concentrate on the last message that someone would receive before they made a decision about something, as that would catapault you in to the consideration set, or set off an impulse purchase, or whatever.
You can see why it was so popular in Outdoor circles when it came to retail… posters are often the last ‘message’ you’ll be exposed to before entering a shop.
But now, with the mobile device, you can get a lot closer to the actual point of purchase, and do some really interesting things…
– dynamic discounts to keep footfall up (5% over lunch, 15% mid-afternoon)
– use search and visual recognition to offer the good cheap to people in a rival’s store
– be ever-present when the sudden “I need a brolly” decision comes into people’s head when the rain come’s on
…things that are a lot closer to the ‘point of purchase’, and actually occur just before or just after the point at which someone thinks ‘I need this…’
So yeah, that so far is Immediacy Theory… being present in the immediate instant pre-purchase, post-decision…
(I’m sure it’ll get much better when you all comment below, so please do… I’ll be back Tuesday)]]>
Microsoft's Bing Maps… take that, Google
If you watch one thing today, watch this…
…Blaise Agüera y Arcas is the architect of Bing Maps at Microsoft (and worked on the excellent Photosynth project before), and talks through their brilliant new developments at Ted 2010 last month.
Reading some of these comments of Slashdot, it really seems they’re trying to leapfrog Google in terms of just what a map can do.
See? I said before it was all about location…
Location. Location? Location!
(picture of Utility’s sign in Brighton… thanks to clever Matt for the clever title)
“…there’s a frood who really knows where his towel is“
…from Hitch-hiker’s Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams
I’m becoming increasingly fascinated by location.
The location of not just people, but of things too (yes, like towels)…
…and of course of messages… the way people and things communicate with each other.
We’re living in a world where everything knows where it is (whatever it is, human or object) in relation to lots of other things.
So I thought it was worth expanding on why, including why it’s probably very important for marketing folks to be thinking about.
How things were
Some background; when I worked in the planning and insight function at Viacom Outdoor, location was very important for us. We were the guys charged with coming up with (occasionally) clever thoughts on why and how advertisers could use Underground & Bus advertising to target the right sorts of people.
We used to refer a lot to ‘recency theory’, as developed by a chap called Erwin Ephron in the US, which basically stated that the most important message you can deliver is the last before someone chooses to do something.
You can see why it would appeal as a theory to folk selling outdoor ad space… six years ago most transactions were still happening on the high street, and as a way to influence decisions posters were a pretty good bet.
Of course, it’s classic advertising; push messaging, reach millions, affect thousands, and hang the wastage…
How things are
Nowadays, of course, we’re no longer buying stuff exclusively on the High Street. In 2009, we spent nearly £50bn online (up 21% year of year). Total retail sales were £287bn, so just under 20p of every pound we spend is online. A fifth.
Which is enough, in combination with the recession, to make sad sights like this an everyday occurance… this is what you see if you visit the site of the former legendary shopping mecca that was the flagship Virgin Megastore on Oxford Street…
But still, there’s remains a fair chunk of money in people’s pockets to be had when they’re out and about, so the need for location targeting is still there, to guide people towards your front door…
…people aren’t alone when they’re out shopping any more. They’ve got their phone with them… and it’s not an ordinary phone anymore…
Smartphone penetration in the UK was at 15% in Q3 2009 (Nielsen).
Which is of course before we had the iPhone appearing on Orange & Vodafone, a fair few other smartphones appearing on the market, and the Christmas boost.
So it’s got to be around 20% now. Again, a fifth.
And when you look at what they do with these phones, it’s clear that this may well be the ‘year of the mobile’… 10.4m people in Q3 2009 used their phone to access the internet. Up from 8.8m in Q2.
That’s 21% of all mobile users… yep, a fifth, again.
(thanks to Fiona and Mat for the help with stats)
Let’s be honest; the awful browsing experience, combined with stupidly high data charges from the mobile operators, meant the ‘mobile web’ was largely unloved and unused for years.
That’s now significantly changed.
A fifth of people have the technology to access the web on the move, and a fifth of them are.
Yet I don’t think that’s the most important thing about the rise of the smartphone. The interesting thing for me is that smartphones invariably come loaded with GPS… they know exactly where you are.
How things might be
Now, amongst those who have the potential to use location based services on their phone, take-up isn’t huge yet; 3.3m people used location based services in Q3 2009.
But it’s growing fast; there was a 7% increase between Q2 & Q3.
And this is in a country where location based services like Foursquare and Gowalla are still largely waiting for any companies to really engage with the platforms, as I talked about here.
Why would companies engage in services like this?
Well, because people will want them to, and reward the ones who do it well with their custom.
On a very simple retail level, there’s huge advantages for people in being able to hold a device in your hand that tells you about the shopping environment around you…
– find out about the discounts being offered, and even make yourself ‘known’ as a discount hunter and see if anyone wants to attract you with a short-term immediate discount in return for your custom
– check the stock lists of a store, so if you’re after something in particular, you know which shops have it, and at what price
– make personal shopper appointments – if there’s a personal shopped in a clothes store you really trust, you can find out if they’re working
– the map for the ‘fastest route around’ based on the shops you want to visit, where they are, and how big the queues there are currently (or have been in the past)
– find out where there’s a free table in coffee shops or restaurants, and reserve it for a small fee (payable instantly through the phone)
– set up impromptu ‘meeting points’ that you can send to other friends and family members
– remember where your car is in the huge, sprawling car park
…and of course, the possibilities go on and on.
I believe that there will be a location based service around the shopping experience that will cater for just about everyone eventually; young, old, techy or not.
Because at the heart of it, there’s something hugely useful in improving the shopping experience.
Of course, location based services in the shopping environment could simply drive down prices, much as an insurance aggregation site does in that market (I talked about the notion of Perfect Competition earlier this year in this context).
The challenge for us in marketing is to create these things that continue to add value to the retail experience for people; it will be as much a part of the ‘brand experience’ as the store signage or the TV ad.
One day, there will be no excuse for anyone not knowing where their towel is. Or how much it costs, or which shop it’s in, or how long it will take to get there…..
The Burglar Geek Venn
<![CDATA[I think we're overreacting...(see please rob me if you haven’t already. inspired by something mike said)]]>
Foursquare; getting past 'why would people do that?'
Two men who’re very much smarter than I have ruminated on the FourSquare thang.
Charles Arthur, Guardian tech supremo fella, isn’t convinced, saying…
“…you go around collecting useful information for them (the location of restaurants, houses, and so on) and they “reward” you by letting you claim to be the mayor of Nonsuch. Except that if someone else comes along and checks in more frequently, they can become the mayor of Nonsuch. Oh noes! Oh, who cares.”
Russell Davies, in response, makes this point…
“…web and mobile stuff lowers so many barriers. It’s lowered the cost,
effort and skills required to build tools, express yourself, connect to
people etc etc. All that.”
“It’s also lowered the amount of point something needs to have to be worth playing with. It’s lowered the point point. Using Foursquare or Gowalla represents such a minimal amount of effort and energy – normally in a moment of your day when you’re not doing anything else – that you only need a tiny amount of reward for it to be worthwhile. And, actually, for quite a lot of people, quite a lot of the point is in seeing how much point there is.”
I think that sometimes you’ve got to look past the ‘why would people do that..?’
It doesn’t matter why they would do it. If they are, and there’s something interesting there, then ask a better question…
“…what can we do that would interest people who do that..?”
Now, I’m a big FourSquare fan…
…not necessarily just because I like finding out about stuff, but because I (think) I can see a world ripe with potential.
(Which is what we agency folk do: we go hunting for potential, in lots of interesting places, because ‘potential’ no longer just lands on a media agencies doorstep in nicely defined lumps of TV advertising)
And it occurs that there is a terrific amount of space in FourSquare at the moment to “do things that interest people who FourSquare”.
But even wandering around Central London, where you’d expect to find the greatest density of useful and interesting activity, the offers and tips you can find are pretty few and far between.
Yet unlike a lot of other creations in the social space, FourSquare has lots of convenient brand & company shaped holes in it.
Free Friday coffee for the Mayor.
10% your trainers here if you’re Mayor of your local gym.
Visit five of our stores, check in, and get a ‘superfan’ reward.
Whatever you come up with.
Because then, I think it hits the point Charles sums up his article with…
“Location-based services are really important, and they’re potentially the source of substantial revenue-making opportunities. But only the ones that are grounded in the real world, and things you can do with that real world.”
So c’mon, let’s put some real world stuff in there… useful, entertaining, educational, connective remember?]]>